The Persistence of Mass Incarceration in a Low Crime Era

• In Event: Causes, Consequences, and Legacies of Mass Incarceration

Abstract

Why did incarceration rates continue to rise dramatically between 1994 and 2012 even as the crime rate sharply declined? This question is empirically addressed through analyses of more than 350,000 felony cases over 33 years in Minnesota. Results suggest that it was not the volume of violent crime or higher arrest rates that kept incarceration high. In addition, judges did not become more punitive over time; if anything they became more lenient. Rather, the incarceration rate continued upward because an ever larger proportion of offenders entered the courts with criminal records than in the 1980s. Given that prior record is a major determinant of receiving a prison sentence, it follows that a larger proportion of felons was sent to prison during the latter end of this time span, and hence imprisonment rates continued to climb during the ‘great crime decline.’ It is further argued that the volume of crime and the more expansive justice system that developed in the 1980s and early 1990s contributed to a growth in offenders with a criminal history, which proved consequential for keeping imprisonment at a high level. Implications for macro-level studies of incarceration and attempts at decarceration are discussed.

Author

• Ryan D. King, The Ohio State University