Subjective Risk Updating and Criminal Specialization

• In Event: New and Creative Ways to Study Responses to Sanctions and Risk

Abstract

In this study, we estimate changes in the probabilities of self-reported criminal behavior after arrest to examine whether or not individuals change their self-reported criminal behavior within and/or across crime types. We’re particularly interested in whether or not there are certain combinations of crime types that affect the probability of engaging in future criminal behavior. Our goal is to better understand the updating of risk perceptions and subsequent translation to behavior across crime types. For example, among individuals who self-report drug sales, does an arrest for a weapons violation change the probability of future self-reported weapons possession or drug sales? Using data from the Pathways to Desistance study, we begin by examining whether or not we observe changes in the probability of future criminal behavior within crime type after an arrest for that crime type. Then we estimate changes in the probability of future criminal behavior in crime types that differ from the arrest crime. We proceed to examine whether changes in these conditional probabilities vary based on self-reported criminal history.

Authors

• Sarah Tahamont, University of Maryland

• Kyle Thomas, University of Missouri - St. Louis