A Different Method of Predicting Risk: Unpacking the Implications of a Statewide Sentencing Risk Assessment

• In Event: The Roles of Risk and Recidivism in Sentencing

Abstract

Despite a recent proliferation of sentencing risk assessment legislation, many questions remain about their effectiveness, predictive validity, and potential effects on racial and ethnic disproportionality. To improve our understanding of sentencing risk assessments I analyze the relationship between offender characteristics and recidivism and create a risk assessment tool. In this presentation I address gaps in what is known about the implications for racial and ethnic disparities when using risk assessment at the sentencing stage. These questions are answered using a longitudinal sample of 10,002
serious adult offenders sentenced in Pennsylvania between 2001-2005 and followed for up to 11.6 years post release. Offender characteristics and multiple outcomes measures are collected from the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections, the Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing, and the Pennsylvania State Police. Along with standard demographic and offense characteristics, the potential risk-predictive measures include pro-criminal attitudes, peer contacts, and socio-economic status. This project presents a multi-faceted analysis of the potential implications of moving from informal to formalized risk-based sentencing.

Author

• Julia Laskorunsky, Pennsylvania State University