The Influence of Economic Factors on Crime Rates and Consequences for Reducing Mass Incarceration

• In Event: Non-Criminal Justice Correlates of U.S. Crime Rates and Implications for Eliminating Mass Incarcetation

Abstract

One of the major obstacles to justifying significant reductions in mass incarceration is the persistent critique that in so doing crime rates will necessarily rise. Various statistical models of the positive effects of deterrence and incapacitation promulgated by leading criminologists advise policy makers that relaxing the certainty and duration of imprisonment will lead to higher crime rates. This despite the observation in three major states (New York, New Jersey and California) that major reductions in state prison populations were associated with declining crime rates. Explanations of how lower prison rates and lower crime rates are feasible are presented. It is argued that criminologists need to refocus their attention on non-criminal justice factors as the solution to lower crime rates.

Author

• James Austin, JFA Institute