How Does Terorism Risk Change by Ideology in Space? A Comparison between Leftist and Separatist Attacks

• In Event: Risk Terrain Modeling

Abstract

This study investigates whether and how violent terrorist acts vary with respect to their spatial aspects when the ideology is the point of comparison. Relevant literature suggested that target selection along with the places of terrorist attacks are related the group`s strategies. For the practitioners, risky places of terrorism at a very micro scale are different for terrorist groups. Separatist and leftist terrorist groups committed 1,152 violent terrorist incidents in Istanbul between 2008 and 2012. To test theoretical and practical assumptions, the geocoded terrorist incidents were separated in their target types by the ideology of the perpetrators. Then, 17 infrastructural variables were identified and modeled to separately test their correlations with 481 separatist and 672 leftist terrorist incident locations, using Risk Terrain Modeling. In this comparison by ideology, variations were observed in the significant correlates, spatial influence of the same correlates, and -most importantly- the risky areas of terrorism in the jurisdiction. 

Author

• Ismail Onat, University of Scranton