Predestination or Redemption? How Early Do Childhood Factors Predict Adolescent Outcomes?

• In Event: Methodological Advancements to Studying Crime and Development

Abstract

Certain criminological theories have argued that life trajectories are defined early in childhood in such a way that anything that happens after that time could be attributed to selection, while others have reinforced the potential for change and the lack of predictive power that childhood behavior has on later outcomes. Researchers have focused on examining the heterogeneity of developmental trajectories, some of which characterized by higher levels of problem behavior early on life and the involvement in deviance in adolescence. However, an open question remains whether and how early we can identify ‘chronic’ patterns of deviance. Using data from the Rochester Intergenerational Study, we analyze trajectories of problem behavior and their relation to latter outcomes, particularly to adolescence substance use. Then, we estimate how early in the life course were we able to identify the individuals who populate those different trajectories of problem behavior. We end with a discussion of the potential consequences of these results for research and prevention programs.

Authors

• Pilar Larroulet, University of Maryland

• Thomas Loughran, University of Maryland