Homicides, Migration and Economic Development in Cross-National Perspective: A Longitudinal Analysis

• In Event: Longitudinal Examinations of Criminal Behavior

Abstract

Prior research suggests that individual immigrants have a reduced propensity for crime and those areas that host larger immigrant populations display lower rates of crime. However, at the cross-national level, the relationship between migration and crime rates remains untested.
In a seminal paper, Robinson (1950) demonstrated that literacy rates are higher in locations with more immigrants not because immigrants themselves were more literate in English, but instead because immigrants were drawn to the most educated locations. His conclusion suggests that immigrants select into locations with the best economic outlook. Accordingly, social changes that are correlated with migration may be a consequence of improving economic conditions. We draw from this perspective to test the relationship between migration and homicides. Using longitudinal data from 64 countries between 1998 and 2012, the results from our fixed-effects models demonstrate that countries with a higher percentage of migrants have a lower homicide rates. However, this association disappears after controlling for economic development. In contrast, economic measures retain a negative association with homicides, while also yielding a positive association with migration. Findings support the conclusion that migration is a social consequence of a broader process of country development that also corresponds to lower levels of violence.

Authors

• Mateus Renno Santos, University of Maryland

• Alexander Testa, University of Maryland

• Douglas B Weiss, California State University, San Bernadino