In the Heat of the Moment? Weather and the Spatial Location of Crime in Oslo

• In Event: Poster Session II

Abstract

It well known as weather affects crime, both by changing patterns of routine activities, and perhaps also because aggression increases in temperature through physiological mechanisms. There is also a large literature showing stable geographical patterns in crime (“hot spots”). We add to both these literatures by estimating effects of weather on the spatial distribution of crime. We combine publicly available data on temperature, wind, cloudiness and barometric pressure updated daily or hourly with police data on the location and nature of reported offences in a the Norwegian capital, Oslo, 2008-2013 (N ~ 0.5 million events). Preliminary analysis using negative binomial count models show that counts of violence and drug offences decreases in rainfall, while no effects are found for temperature. Further analysis includes assessing the effect of weather on the spatial distribution of crime using Andersons’ spatial point test, as well as exploring theoretically meaningful interactions between different aspects of weather, such as the combination of high temperature and high barometric pressure.

Authors

• Rannveig Hart, University of Oslo

• Willy Pedersen, University of Oslo

• Torbjorn Skardhamar, University of Oslo