A Stone of Hope: Empirical Analysis and Reform Proposal for Youth Offender Parole Decisions

• In Event: Juvenile Lifers and the Possibility of Parole

Abstract

This paper presents results of the author’s study of over 400 California parole decisions among prisoners who were convicted as juveniles and sentenced to life with the possibility of parole (“juvenile lifers”). Using regression analysis, the study finds that factors related to youth do not have a statistically significant impact on the parole decision, and that factors related to adult prison history do have a significant and substantial impact the parole decision. Several factors which appear orthogonal to either youth or adult prison history also have a significant and substantial impact on the parole decision. These include (but are not limited to) the race of the parole candidate, whether the victim opposes parole, whether a private attorney is retained, and whether the candidate is incarcerated under maximum security prison conditions. These results show that the youth offender parole system is subject to an oft-cited criticism of parole-release decisions: a high degree of discretion in decision-making tends to result in a high degree of arbitrariness in decision outcomes. The paper sets forth a reform proposal that aims to limit arbitrariness in decisions through imposition of clear, measurable criteria for parole release.

Author

• Kristen Bell, University of Oregon School of Law