The Enduring Influence of Cohort Characteristics on Race-Specific Homicide Rates, 1975 – 2014

• In Event: Cohort Analyses of Violence across Time, Space, and Race

Abstract

This study extends research on cohort effects by presenting a theoretical framework that incorporates bifurcated population dynamics and institutional constraints to explain variation in homicide rates across racial groups in the United States. We argue that not only should cohort effects emerge most clearly within racial groups over time, but that the relative size of white cohorts should drive up the homicide rate of blacks born at the same time as a large number of white children. We employ Age-Period-Cohort Characteristic models to examine the influence of relative cohort size and non-martial births on cohort-specific homicide rates among the black and white populations separately for the 1975-2014 period. The results reveal persistent effects of relative cohort size and non-marital births on black cohort-specific homicide rates, but null effects among the white population. Consistent with our theoretical framework, the relative size of white cohorts increases homicide offending and victimization among blacks. These effects follow black birth cohorts across their life course, leading to higher rates of both homicide victimization and offending. We speculate that the labor market accommodates large booms of low-skilled white laborers by edging blacks out of segmented occupations, thereby placing upward pressures on homicide rates within cohorts overtime.

Authors

• Matt Vogel, University of Missouri - St. Louis

• Kristina Thompson Garrity, University of Missouri - St. Louis

• Steven F. Messner, University at Albany, SUNY