Back-End Sentencing: An Exploratory Study of Predictors of Parole Revocation

• In Event: Parole, Parole Revocation & the Reentry Process

Abstract

In this study, we examine the process of back-end sentencing used by parole boards to send parolees that fail their supervision back to prison. We use data that reflect all of the parole revocation decisions that occurred in a highly populated state on the East Coast from 2005 to 2011 (n=13,121). In addition to considering demographic and case control factors, we examine the back-end sentencing variables reflecting the organizational and systematic priorities of the Parole Board. We employ these variables to construct a series of nested logistic regression models which isolate the effects of these factors on the state parole board’s decision to revoke parole during the adjudicative revocation process. Results show that commonly accepted offender-level predictors, including, age, gender, race, and criminal history variables are poor predictors of revocation, while actuarial risk level, parolees’ program participation, and the timing of revocation decisions in relationship to the release and maximum sentence expiration dates provide the greatest predictive ability. Implications for theory, practice, and future research are discussed.

Authors

• Jordan Hyatt, Drexel University

• Michael Ostermann, Rutgers University