Estimating the Causal Relationships Among Juvenile Justice Reform, Youth Crime, and Juvenile Confinement

• In Event: Moving Toward Rehabilitative Approaches to Juvenile Justice

Abstract

Juvenile justice advocacy groups and policymakers often glorify reductions in juvenile out-of-home placements and claim they are the result of reform efforts aimed at reducing the incarceration of youths. Data indicate that the number of youth in residential placements dropped by more than 50 percent from 1997 to 2013. However, this reduction occurred during the historic crime decline, during which juvenile arrests fell by more than 50 percent, thus equating to less demand for confinement. The purpose of this study is to test claims that reforms are responsible for reductions in juvenile incarceration. Using wave panel data (to account for missing data from several years) from 1996 to 2016 on juvenile population, race, crime, political ideology, employment, income, state-level reforms, and youth incarceration, this study uses regression and growth-curve modeling to determine the effect, if any, of juvenile reforms on incarceration. Preliminary results suggest that state-level reforms were not the primary driver of the decline in juvenile incarceration as declines in incarceration started long before the implementation of most reforms.

Authors

• Gina Moreno, John Jay College of Criminal Justice

• Douglas N. Evans, John Jay College of Criminal Justice

• Kevin T. Wolff, John Jay College of Criminal Justice