Disentangling Neighborhood Diffusion Mechanisms Underlying Spatial Patterns of Violence

• In Event: Networks and Crime III: Co-Offending and Violence Networks Over Time and Space

Abstract

The spread of violence across urban environments is an important matter both theoretically and for policy and practice. Beyond spatial diffusion processes which imply that violence spreads locally like a communicable disease (i.e., spillover), other underlying mechanisms are rarely considered in empirical research. Yet we can imagine many ways in which violence in one neighborhood might be connected to that in another. This study examines how neighborhoods are connected in violent crime by tracking the movement of the most common tool used in violence – guns. We leverage a unique data source that links crime incidents involving the same gun to determine how a neighborhood network of gun violence is structured. We then show how this network drives the spread of violence across neighborhoods and explains the concentration of crime better than conventional spatial models. Further analyses show how this network is generated to offer clues about the maintenance of gun violence ties across the metropolitan region.

Authors

• Theodore Lentz, University of Missouri - St. Louis

• Beth Huebner, University of Missouri - St. Louis

• Joseph Schafer, St. Louis University