Effects of Presentation of Pretrial Risk Probabilities on Pretrial Release Decisions

• In Event: Discretion in Pretrial Decision-Making

Abstract

As jurisdictions across the United States incorporate pretrial risk assessments as a component of pretrial reform, one overlooked aspect is risk communication. Many pretrial risk assessment tools communicate the magnitude of risk estimates as a single probability of misconduct, which often overlooks the uncertainty associated with risk estimation. The goal of the current study is to assess whether presentation of risk assessment information as fixed or variable probabilities affects decision-makers’ pretrial release recommendations. We hypothesized decision-makers would make more conservative decisions when presented with variable probabilities as opposed to fixed probabilities. Vignettes will be issued to approximately 250 judges, pretrial officers, prosecutors, and defense attorneys across the United States with random assignment to a vignette with a one-value probability (30, 40, or 50%) or a range of probabilities (30-50%) as the risk estimate. We will also examine whether this effect differs by charge type (a 2 x 4 design). Outcomes will include orders to unconditional release and other pretrial decisions. We will qualitatively explore pretrial actors’ decision-making rationale via open-ended questions. This mixed-methods study will provide quantitative and contextual data on pretrial judicial decision-making. Findings may inform changes to risk communication methods in current and future risk assessment tool development.

Authors

• Ashley Elizabeth Rodriguez, George Mason University

• Evan Marie Lowder, George Mason University