The Effect of Arrests on Crime in Washington, DC

• In Event: Considering and Evaluating Choice-Based Policies and Perspectives

Abstract

Research on the effect of arrests on crime has arrived at opposing conclusions based on different methodological designs, with most longitudinal studies failing to support a negative arrest-crime relationship. However, few studies also control for incapacitation effects in their analyses. The current study assesses the arrest-crime relationship using data from Washington, DC while controlling for jail incapacitation effects. A vector autoregression approach was used to analyze multiple time series consisting of crime, arrests, and jail population data. Results suggested arrests were not associated with decreases in crime in DC. Findings do not support macro-level deterrence theory or the premise of a widespread jail incapacitation effect.

Author

• Jordan Robert Riddell, Missouri State University