Assessing the Public’s Willingness to Recommend Parole Release: Evidence From a Vignette Experiment

• In Event: Perceptions of Reentry

Abstract

Modern efforts to update parole systems and improve decision-making have spurred renewed initiatives to adopt evidence-based practices to guide parole recommendations. Despite these developments, limited research has examined public attitudes towards parole effectiveness or the extent to which these views align with parole board release decisions. To assess public preferences for parole release, we conducted a 2x2x3 vignette experiment using data from a representative US sample (N = 1,000) collected via Prolific, stratified by sex, age, and ethnicity. Respondents were asked to imagine themselves as a parole board member tasked with evaluating release for a hypothetical offender. Experimental manipulations included offense type, in-prison behavior, and risk levels assessed at the time of the parole hearing. Direct effects indicated that individuals categorized as low- and moderate-risk were significantly more likely to be recommended for parole release than those classified as high-risk. Additionally, respondents were significantly less likely to recommend parole for individuals incarcerated for a violent offense or those who committed prison infractions. Two- and three-way interactions revealed that prison misconduct moderates the relationship between low-risk classification and parole-release recommendations. The findings hold significant implications for policy and practice, including in-prison behaviors that comprise low-risk individuals being recommended for parole release.

Authors

• Lucas Alward, Boise State Unversity

• Matthias van Hall, Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR)