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Security, Prestige, and Power: Understanding the Determinants of Russian Strategic Nuclear Modernization under Vladimir Putin

Thu, November 10, 1:00 to 2:45pm CST (1:00 to 2:45pm CST), The Palmer House Hilton, Floor: 3rd Floor, The Marshfield Room

Abstract

Russia is currently modernizing its strategic nuclear arsenal. This modernization includes making upgrades to existing capabilities and developing novel weapons systems. This dissertation explores what factors are motivating Russian nuclear modernization and which factors determine the prioritization of particular weapons systems over others. I argue that Russian nuclear modernization is primarily driven by security concerns—specifically a perceived future threat posed by a combination of the U.S. Prompt Global Strike program and potential improvements to U.S. missile defense capabilities—but that multiple nuclear weapons systems could be developed to counter this security threat. I argue that domestic factors—specifically resource constraints and the interests of domestic actors—determine which of these systems are prioritized. Resource constraints limit how many systems Russia can develop, forcing the Russian government to choose particular technologies over others. The weapon that are selected are those that meet the financial or political interests of the most powerful domestic actors or most powerful coalitions of domestic actors, as they exhibit the greatest influence over the decision to develop these capabilities. I combine an analysis of Russian military texts, strategic documents, and official statements with interviews of US and allied officials to assess the factors motivating Russian modernization.

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