Assessing the Causes and Outcomes of Grade Repetition in Primary Grades in Rwanda: Evidence from a National Assessment

• In Event: Accountability, Monitoring and Measurement

Proposal

CIES 2017 Paper Presentation Proposal

Title: Assessing the Causes and Outcomes of Grade Repetition in Primary Grades in Rwanda: Evidence from a National Assessment

Repetition and drop-out are serious issues that threaten progress of many developing countries towards middle-income status and achievement of national education development goals. With the push for Universal Primary and Basic Education, primary school enrollment in sub-Saharan countries has significantly increased over the past ten years. However, accompanying these enrollment rates is a troubling repetition and drop-out rate. Research has shown that grade repetition is a strong predicator of drop-out in that grade repeaters are also more likely to become dropouts. In Rwanda, over recent years, primary school dropout and repetition have been on the rise. According to the Rwandan Ministry of Education, the official repetition and drop-out rate was roughly 18% and 14% respectively in primary school. As in other countries, Rwandan students from more disadvantaged households and students with disabilities are more at risk to repeat a grade or dropout.

Identifying the actionable causes and outcomes of grade repetition and dropout is critical to crafting effective solutions and strategies to prevent students from repeating grades and dropping out of school. In Rwanda, EDC has conducted three national assessments and three regional assessments of the reading and math skills of primary school students as part of the USAID-funded Language, Literacy and Learning (L3) program. As part of our national assessments, EDC conducted a three-year longitudinal repeater study to examine key issues surrounding grade repetition and drop-out in Rwanda. In a nationally representative sample, primary students were tracked longitudinally over three years to examine key questions in repetition and drop-out in the context of Rwanda, including:

• Who are grade repeaters?
• What are the causes, factors and conditions at the individual, family and school-level that influence grade repetition and drop-out?
• To what extent does grade repetition positively impact learner achievement in reading and math?
• Do learners who are retained “catch up” to their peers?
• What are the long-term outcomes of grade repetition?

The paper presentation will present the findings of EDC’s three-year national study on grade repetition patterns and causes in Rwanda, the outcomes of grade retention on learner achievement and discuss strategies that could help mitigate these trends.

Findings. Study results of longitudinally tracked primary learners found that repeaters were largely found to be in grade 1 and to be, on average, older than their non-repeating peers. The proportion of boys and girls was similar to that of non-repeaters. Teachers reported that the majority of repeaters were not orphans and did not have learning barriers. However, these learners were reported to miss school or be late for school more often than their non-repeating peers.

To better understand the reasons why learners are held back a year, the study team asked teachers familiar with repeating learners. The most common reason teachers cited that learners were retained in the current grade was low academic performance and poor attendance. Roughly one fifth of repeaters were at risk of dropping out.

Reading and math assessment results of repeaters were analyzed to determine how effective grade repetition was in improving learner achievement. The study found that the majority of repeaters were found to have made substantial gains in reading and math over the course of repeating a grade for one academic year. Grade 1 repeaters in the sample actually caught up to their non-repeating peers, while Grade 2 and Grade 3 repeaters closed more than half of the gap between them and non-repeaters. These findings are moderated by existing research that shows that initial achievement gains that occur during the year the student is retained will decline within 2-3 years of retention, such that retained children either do not perform better or perform more poorly than similar groups of promoted children. Based on these findings, the study provided recommendations and strategies that could help mitigate these trends in grade repetition and drop-out.

Author

• Brittany Hebert, Education Development Center (EDC)