Causal loop diagrams to explain performance gaps in South Africa’s primary education system

• In Event: Innovations in research methods to study education systems

Proposal

1. Context
Various studies (OECD, 2015) highlight the persistence of educational inequality, such as in South Africa where the long history of oppression and apartheid have led to a divided education system (World Bank, 2008). Numerous studies have addressed relevant causes and consequences (Van der Berg, 2011; Finn et all, 2014), but without adequately capturing the cumulative and systemic factors that create inequality (see Carter and Reardon, 2014). This paper presents an example from a study which used a system dynamics approach to better understand the complexity of the high inequality in South Africa.

2. Theoretical framework, theory of change, supporting literature
Educational inequality is a complex problem shaped by a range of cultural and structural features of education systems. Current research on educational inequality often uses international performance data (e.g. PISA, dropout rates) and social and economic indicators (e.g. GDP) to compare countries and cohorts of students, and correlate policy interventions and student outcomes. Given the much more idiosyncratic and interrelated nature of conditions of inequality, a system dynamics approach to research is needed which looks at the interactions between the agents in the system, the conditions that have an impact on their interactions and the mechanisms of change underlying system-wide improvements to address inequality.

3. Mode of inquiry, approach, methods, analysis
This paper presents an example of a study in South Africa where a system dynamics approach was used to understand performance gaps between schools. The approach included the construction of causal loop diagrams with teachers, curriculum managers, subject advisors and practitioners/researchers working with schools and districts. A causal loop diagram is a map of a system with all its constituent components and their interactions. ‘System’ refers here to all the primary schools in South Africa within the hierarchy of district, province and national government, and the large achievement gaps between schools in different poverty quintiles.

4. Findings, key learnings, arguments, recommendations
The paper will discuss the relevance of system dynamics to understand high inequality. We’ll present the outcomes from one group of academics who identified both reinforcing and balancing loops to explain the high inequality in the system, pointing to disparity in resource allocation to schools in deprived and advantaged areas, teacher allocation and district support of schools as causes for high inequality. We’ll use these models to illustrate how system dynamics can clarify non-linear behavior and identify leverage points for change.

5. Originality, contribution to education debate, possible application
System dynamics provides a unique perspective and a set of conceptual tools to understand the structure and dynamics of complex systems. The approach provides a perspective and a set of conceptual tools to understand the structure and dynamics of complex systems, enabling us to understand why certain interventions or policies may not have produced the expected results.

Author

• Melanie Ehren, Free University Amsterdam