Gender gaps in STEM career expectations among East Asian adolescents: Evidence from PISA 2015–2022

• In Event: Higher Education in East Asia: Gender, Agency, Research Collaboration and Assessment

Proposal

Introduction and Rationale
In the context of rapid technological change, STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) fields are central to economic development and national competitiveness. Governments worldwide have invested heavily in STEM education and talent pipelines. In East Asia, this trend is particularly pronounced, as countries like China, South Korea, and Singapore seek to position themselves at the forefront of technological innovation. Yet, despite rising academic achievement, girls remain persistently underrepresented in STEM fields in both higher education and the labor market. This gender gap is not only a matter of equity, but also has critical implications for innovation, efficiency, and the diversity of talent.
One of the most crucial stages in the STEM career trajectories development is adolescence, when students begin to form clearer ideas about their future aspirations, often shaped by academic performance, self-concept, family background, and perceptions of societal norms. In many East Asian education systems (e.g., Mainland China, Japan, South Korea), students are required to make early decisions about subject specialization, which are closely linked to future academic and career paths. While numerous studies examine gender differences in STEM achievement and attitudes, far fewer explore how these shape career expectations. Understanding how gendered aspirations form and persist is essential for designing effective educational policy and intervention.
This study seeks to address three questions: (1) To what extent do gender gaps in STEM career expectations exist among East Asian adolescents, and how have they evolved from 2015–2022? (2) After accounting for background characteristics, does gender remain a predictor of STEM aspirations? (3) How do national-level factors—such as labor market structures, gender equality, and workforce composition—shape the magnitude and direction of these gaps? Focusing on six economies (Mainland China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong), the study situates adolescent expectations within broader socio-political and cultural context, offering a deeper understanding of how gendered career trajectories are formed across educational systems undergoing rapid reform and modernization.

Data and Methods
This study uses data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), administered by the OECD in 2015, 2018, and 2022. The sample includes nationally representative 15-year-old students from six East Asian economies. The primary outcome variable is students’ expected occupation at age 30, coded into a binary measure of whether the chosen career falls within the STEM category (ISCO-08 occupational codes). STEM occupations include Science and Engineering Professionals (ISCO-08 2110-2166)， Information and Communications Technology Professionals (ISCO-08 2500-2529)， Science and Engineering Associate Professionals (ISCO-08 3110-3155)，and Information and Communications Technicians (ISCO 08-3500-3522). Students without clear career expectations were excluded from the analysis.
The main explanatory variable is gender, complemented by a rich set of controls at the individual and family levels: age, immigrant status, PISA math and science performance, socioeconomic status (SES), parental education, and whether either parent works in a STEM occupation. School-average SES is also included to account for peer and school effects. At the national level, we incorporate five contextual indicators: the density of R&D personnel, the size of the service sector, the proportion of women in managerial positions, the share of female graduates in STEM fields, and the gender ratio in full-time employment. All national-level variables are standardized and interact with gender to assess differential effects.
Analytically, the study proceeds in three steps: (1) descriptive statistics examine gender differences in STEM career expectations and their evolution overtime. (2) logistic regression models are estimated separately for Japan, Korea, and Singapore to assess individual-level predictors. (3) a pooled logistic regression model incorporates national-level variables and gender interactions to explore macro-level moderating effects. All models account for PISA’s sampling design with weights and robust errors.

Findings
Persistent gender gaps in STEM career expectations exist across all six economies, with boys consistently expressing higher interest than girls. However, the magnitude and trajectory of these gaps vary. In Singapore and South Korea, gender disparities have narrowed over time, with male students’ STEM interest declining and female students’ interest remaining stable or increasing. In contrast, Japan and Taiwan remain static. Mainland China shows a sharp increase in STEM aspirations between 2015 and 2018, though gender differences remain evident.
Regression analyses confirm gender remains a significant predictor of STEM aspirations, after controlling for academic performance and SES. In Korea, Japan, and Singapore, girls are less than half as likely as boys to expect a future in STEM-related occupations. Scientific literacy and parental STEM occupation are strong positive predictors across countries. Interestingly, parental education is negatively associated with STEM aspirations in Japan, suggesting that highly educated families may encourage more diverse career paths.
At the national level, structural and institutional factors significantly shape gendered career expectations. The proportion of female STEM graduates increases students’ likelihood of STEM aspirations. Most notably, the interaction between gender and national R&D intensity is significant: in countries with higher concentrations of R&D personnel, girls are more likely to aspire to STEM careers, suggesting the importance of vibrant innovation ecosystems in encouraging female participation in STEM.

Originality and Contribution
This research offers several novel contributions to literature on education, gender, and career development. First, it focuses on East Asia, a region that is both underrepresented in international STEM studies and uniquely positioned at the intersection of traditional gender norms and rapid technological advancement. Second, the study captures dynamic changes in career expectations overtime using three PISA waves, including policy reforms effects and shocks such as COVID-19. Third, integrating individual, school, and macro-level variables into a single analytical framework offers a comprehensive view of how gendered career aspirations are shaped by personal and structural forces.
The findings highlight the importance of national policy environments and support theories emphasizing the interaction of agency and context. By identifying conditions under which gender gaps narrow, the study offers policy implications for promoting equity in STEM education and careers.
Furthermore, by centering East Asia in the global conversation on gender and STEM, this study expands both geographic and theoretical scope. It underscores the need to move beyond individual-level explanations and examines how broader contexts influence career trajectories, providing a foundation for comparative research and policy innovation.

Authors

• Huacong Liu, Shanghai Jiao Tong University

• Lechen Li, University of Florida

• Yu Sun

• Yang Yu