Gender differences in mathematics achievement: a multilevel analysis using PISA 2022 data from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

• In Event: School education in Central Asia: Academic achievement, educational leadership, and curricular reform

Proposal

Gender-based differences in mathematics performance remain a persistent topic of discussion in comparative and international education studies, raising critical questions about equity, inclusion, as well as the role cultural and institutional backgrounds play in shaping learning outcomes (Chan, 2022; Gevrek et al., 2020; Schmader, 2023; Scutt et al., 2013). This paper explores gendered patterns of mathematics performance in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, two Central Asian republics, through the lens of Expectancy-value theory (EVT) using 2022 data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA).
Extensive research has documented gender differences in mathematics achievement, self-efficacy, anxiety, and learning behaviors in Western (Bench et al., 2015; Contini et al., 2017; Entwisle et al., 1994; Sohn, 2012) and East Asian contexts (Dindyal, 2008; Isa & Chinen, 2016; D. H. Kim & Law, 2012; M. Kim & Kwak, 2018; Tsui, 2007), yet relatively little is known about how these patterns develop in Central Asia. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, two of the largest republics in the region, present an intriguing case for investigating these issues. Historically, Central Asian republics inherited Soviet-era policies that promoted gender equity in education, which reached nearly universal access to schooling by the 1980s (Durrani et al., 2025). However, following independence of states, economic and institutional transformations have hugely reshaped gender dynamics, including those in education and labor market. In particular, while girls and boys in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have achieved near parity in primary and secondary school enrollment (UNESCO Office in Almaty, 2021), differences persist in career preferences, learning outcomes and participation in STEM fields (Almukhambetova, 2025; OECD, 2023; Toleu et al., 2022).
The theoretical framework guiding this paper is based on EVT, which posits that students’ expectancies of success and the value they place on the tasks impact their achievement-related effort, decision-making, and performance (Eccles, 1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000). Expectancies refer to one’s beliefs about how well they will perform a task in the future, whereas the concept of subjective task value is typically conceptualized into three key elements: attainment value (which relates to personal significance or identity-based importance of succeeding), intrinsic value (interest in or enjoyment of being engaged in the activity), and utility value (perceived practical relevance of the activity for future goals). Importantly, these expectancies and values are formed and influenced by individual experiences, affective memories, self-schemata along with broader influences on the social level. To operationalize these constructs, this study draws on prior research that emphasizes the role of self-efficacy, persistence, motivation, enjoyment, anxiety, and social support in shaping mathematics outcomes.
The paper is guided by two research questions: (1) Are there gender differences in expectancy beliefs and math-related values? and (2) How do these factors impact math achievement of 15-year-old adolescents in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan?
This study utilizes PISA 2022 datasets of Kazakhstan (n=14879 from 571 schools) and Uzbekistan (n=3150 from 193 schools). To analyze the research questions, first, descriptive statistics of data are provided, along with the group mean comparison of key predictors, estimation of the effect sizes of mean groups differences and their z-statistics. Then, two-level linear regression models are estimated to investigate the predictive effects of math self-efficacy, anxiety, and persistence, while controlling for demographic and socioeconomic factors and addressing the nested structure of PISA dataset, where students are clustered within schools.
Descriptive comparisons reveal persistent gender patterns. Across both countries, girls tend to report higher math anxiety and lower math self-efficacy, whereas boys demonstrate greater levels of motivation, and preference for mathematics as a subject. Female students in Kazakhstan, however, display stronger persistence in learning math compared to their male counterparts, a trend not observed in Uzbekistan.
Multilevel regression analyses indicate that expectancy and value-related constructs, including math motivation, persistence and anxiety, are significant predictors of mathematics performance in both countries. School-level characteristics, such as educational resource shortages, school location (urban/rural), and school type (private/public) also indicate varying degrees of influence across contexts. Notably, even after controlling for key predictors, gender still remains an important predictor of math performance: in Kazakhstan, girls score 3.55 points lower in mathematics cognitive test, whilst in Uzbekistan gender gap is even larger – 15 points in favor of boys.
Overall, study results validate the core tenets of EVT, particularly the predictive role of self-efficacy and task values, while also demonstrating how gendered patterns in these psychological variables translate into differences in learning outcomes. At the same time, they also highlight the importance of considering national context, as similar psychological profiles may operate differently depending on structural and cultural contexts even within Central Asian region.
From a policy perspective, the findings of the paper highlight the need for interventions that go beyond formal equality to address deep-rooted psychological and sociocultural barriers. In Kazakhstan, for instance, priorities could focus on integrating teacher training programs aimed at increasing awareness of implicit gender biases and promoting pedagogical strategies that could foster confidence and resilience in math among girls, and improving resource availability. In Uzbekistan greater emphasis could be placed on fostering motivational climate and ensuring equitable access to quality education across school types.

Authors

• Assem Zhulbarissova, JSC «National Center for Education Research and Evaluation «Taldau» named after Ahmet Baitursynuly»

• Assel Kambatyrova, JSC “Akhmet Baitursynuly National Centre for Research and Evaluation of Education “Taldau”'