Shifting Attitudes Towards Minorities in a Changing World: New Evidence from Three Cycles of ICCS

• In Event: Highlighted Session: Equity, Inclusion, and Diversity in Education: Evidence from International Large-Scale Assessments

Proposal

Tolerance towards minorities is a cornerstone of inclusive, diverse, and democratic societies. Yet recent global developments—ranging from rising nationalist movements to debates over immigration and multiculturalism—suggest a shift away from tolerance in societies around the world. Against this backdrop, schools remain crucial spaces where youth can encounter diversity and develop attitudes that shape future democratic participation.
This paper builds directly on earlier analysis of data from the 2009 and 2016 cycles of the International Civic and Citizenship Education Study (ICCS) (Beyer & Brese, 2024). That study showed encouraging increases in primary school students’ endorsement of equal rights for minorities, in all countries participating in both cycles. The release of the 2022 ICCS data allows us to extend the analysis and investigate whether these trends have continued, stalled, or even reversed in today’s more polarized political climate.
By situating new analyses within the global context of rising anti-immigrant discourse and challenges to multicultural policies, this paper highlights both the fragility and the potential of education systems in shaping tolerant attitudes.
Research Questions:
This study investigates four central questions:
1. Trends across cycles – How have the attitudes of secondary school students towards equal rights for minorities changed between 2009, 2016, and 2022?
2. Country policy effects – Can specific national policies on civic education, integration, and diversity help explain differing trajectories across countries?
3. Classroom and civic activities – How are classroom composition and specific civic activities performed within the school related to tolerant attitudes? Do certain activities matter more than others?
4. Country contrasts – Can we discern differences in environment or policy from cases with contrasting trajectories?
Data and Methods:
This study draws on three ICCS cycles (2009, 2016, 2022) for eleven countries—Bulgaria, Chinese Taipei, Colombia, Estonia, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Norway, Slovenia, and Sweden—that participated in all three rounds. The outcome is primary students’ endorsement of minority rights, operationalized with items capturing attitudes toward immigrants and equal treatment.
Key predictors are: (a) classroom composition, measured as the class-level proportion of students with an immigrant background; (b) civic activities in school. In contrast to earlier work that combined the full activity battery into a single scale, we analyze individual items—such as participation in environmental projects, student government, community service, and volunteering—to assess their predictive power separately; and (c) the broader policy context, captured via country-level indicators (e.g., multicultural integration policies and political discourse) assembled from secondary sources.
Analytically, we combine descriptive trend analyses with multilevel regression modeling and cross-country policy comparisons.
Findings (Preliminary / from updated analyses):
The trend patterns indicate that while earlier analyses pointed to a steady rise in tolerance from 2009 to 2016, the 2022 cycle presents a more varied and less optimistic picture. In Colombia, Estonia, and Slovenia, gains achieved between 2009–2016 were reversed by 2022. Italy and Malta show steady increases across both intervals, whereas Latvia, Norway, and Sweden improved significantly from 2009–2016 but exhibited no significant change thereafter (2016–2022).
Analysis of specific civic activity items suggests that not all activities are equally influential. Participation in environmental initiatives is consistently associated with higher tolerance across contexts. In contrast, activities such as volunteering or student government show wide cross-national variation—effective in some settings but not others—implying that how these activities are framed and implemented matters.
Taken together, the stalling or decline in tolerance in several countries mirrors broader global currents of rising nationalism and polarization, underscoring the urgency of education as a countervailing force.
Contribution and Significance:
This paper advances the field in three interrelated ways. First, it offers a longitudinal extension by incorporating the newly released 2022 ICCS cycle, updating prior analyses and enabling a 13-year perspective. Second, it introduces a clearer policy focus by linking macro-level trends in tolerance to country-specific policies and public discourse, thereby identifying institutional contexts that appear to protect against declining tolerance. Third, it provides an activity-specific analysis that disaggregates the civic activity battery to determine which activities are consistently associated with tolerant attitudes and which exhibit context-dependent effects.
Taken together, these contributions clarify how education systems may shape students’ attitudes toward diversity. The findings inform future research and provide practical guidance for designing educational practices that support tolerance across different national contexts.

Authors

• Clara W Beyer, International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (IEA)

• Falk Brese