Scaling foundational literacy and numeracy: Evidence from a three-year quasi-experimental impact and process evaluation in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh

• In Event: Building FLN programs and evidence: Implementation of and impact evidence from state-wide and top-up district-level FLN interventions in India

Proposal

This panel contribution presents findings from a three-year mixed-methods impact and process evaluation of India’s NIPUN Bharat Mission for Foundational Literacy and Numeracy (FLN), implemented in Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Uttar Pradesh (UP) between 2022–2025. The evaluation examined two implementation models: (i) the state-wide NIPUN program (SNP), (ii) an additional layer of district-level implementation support (DIS) alongside SNP. In UP, however, two intensity levels of DIS were studied - Low Intensity (DIS-LI) for fewer resources across the districts and High Intensity (DIS-HI) with more dedicated resources across districts to strengthen NIPUN monitoring.
A quasi-experimental design with Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM) assessed impact of the program on student learning outcomes across two cohorts (Grades 1-3 with three years of exposure, and Grades 1–2 with two years of exposure). Alongside, a process evaluation ( 150 classroom observations, 75 teacher interviews, and 60 interviews with academic support officials across both states) unearthed changes in FLN outcomes (teacher and mentor practice, system buy-in) and factors likely to be contributing towards the same. .
Findings reveal that structured pedagogy interventions yielded substantial improvements in literacy and numeracy across models. In MP, the top-up DIS intervention produced significant cumulative effects (0.39 SD in literacy, 0.33 SD in numeracy) in Cohort 1, with moderate effects in Cohort 2. In UP, all models demonstrated strong progress; however, the DIS-LI model showed the most consistent gains across cohorts (up to 0.44 SD in literacy, 0.30 SD in numeracy). Notably, DIS-HI effects were less sustainable in later cohorts. Together, these findings challenge the assumption that greater intensity of external oversight automatically produces stronger or more sustainable outcomes.
Process findings highlight accompanying systemic shifts: greater program understanding and buy-in, a transition in the role of cluster/block officials from administrative to instructional support, and an emergent culture of data use. Yet, challenges persisted–multigrade classrooms, irregular attendance, and mixed perceptions of the Teacher Guide limited fidelity. Importantly , while DIS models enhanced oversight and fidelity, they also heightened perceptions of pressure and reduced teacher autonomy.
These results underscore the promise of moderate, embedded implementation support in strengthening foundational learning at scale, while cautioning against over-reliance on external pressure. The study contributes new evidence on the effectiveness and sustainability of structured pedagogy reforms within government systems in low- and middle-income country contexts, and sheds light on key enablers and barriers to these reforms. The study contributes to Global South debates by showing that impact is not only a question of pedagogy but of how reforms are embedded within state capacity and professional norms. It highlights the trade-offs between external accountability and local ownership, offering lessons for policymakers and practitioners on how to design system-wide reforms that are both effective and sustainable.

Author

• Gayatri Vaidya, Educational Initiatives