AI Observatory and Action Lab'sTheoretical Frameworkand Hypothesis-Based Approach

• In Event: Navigating Education in the Age of AI: Insights from AI Observatory’s approach to evidence generation and guidance to decision makers

Proposal

Artificial intelligence (AI) is advancing at a pace that education systems around the world are struggling to match. While AI carries the potential to transform teaching, learning, and system management, its rapid evolution makes it difficult for decision-makers—particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)—to separate hype from reality and prepare for an uncertain future. The challenge is not simply to adopt AI, but to navigate it: to ask the right questions, consider the full range of possible futures, and ensure that AI strengthens rather than undermines equity and effectiveness in education.

This presentation introduces the EdTech Hub AI Observatory and Action Lab’s hypothesis-based approach to navigating education in the age of AI. Unlike linear or retrospective research models, this approach emphasizes formulating, testing, and refining hypotheses about how AI may shape education systems. By grounding inquiry in clear hypotheses, the Observatory helps decision-makers evaluate claims about AI and generate actionable evidence to guide policies and practices.

At the center of this approach is EdTech Hub’s theoretical framework, developed to support ministries of education and partners in anticipating change. Drawing on a horizon scan, the framework identifies emerging signals and trends in AI. It does not claim to forecast a single AI future but instead serves as a navigation tool: helping decision-makers explore multiple plausible futures, surface underlying assumptions, and consider trade-offs before they commit to specific strategies.

Our theoretical framework finds six key levers in education systems where AI’s role can play key roles and should be further explored. AI to:
-Enable learners
-Empower teachers
-Streamline bureaucracy
-Align partnerships
-Create context-driven solutions
-Renew the purpose of learning

It also situates AI within three overlapping domains:
-AI in education– examining current uses such as generative lesson-planning tools, teacher coaching systems, or administrative automation.
-AI for education – exploring trajectories of how these uses might evolve and disrupt existing education practice
-Education in the Age of AI– asking broader questions about how AI, as a transformative technology, may alter the purposes of education, the role of teachers, and the skills learners need for the future.

By integrating these perspectives, the framework equips policymakers to think across time horizons and systemic levels, ensuring that short-term decisions remain aligned with long-term goals for equity and quality.

The presentation will share concrete examples of how this approach has already been applied, including in informing the design of Initiatives to test key hypotheses in the real world, such as the Ministries of Education AI Challenge (described in detail by a fellow presenter).
Ultimately, this hypothesis-based approach is not only about better evidence but also about human-centered decision-making. It reframes the role of education leaders in LMICs from being passive recipients of global technology trends to becoming active shapers of their own AI futures. By surfacing hypotheses, engaging diverse stakeholders, and testing ideas in practice, the AI Observatory and Action Lab helps create pathways that align AI adoption with national education priorities, safeguard equity, and prepare systems for the uncertainties ahead.

Author

• Daniel Plaut, EdTech Hub