Parental migration, educational achievement, and health outcomes of children left behind: evidence from rural China

• In Event: Highlighted Session: Supporting Vulnerable Children and Youth: Family Disruption, Urban Marginality, and Educational Outcomes

Proposal

In many developing countries, economic transformation and urbanization have driven widespread labor migration, often separating families for prolonged periods. In China, the rural-to-urban migration wave is the largest in human history, with over 200 million rural workers relocating to urban centers in the past few decades. Due to China’s household registration (hukou) system, migrant workers face institutional barriers to accessing urban public services, particularly in health care and education. Consequently, many migrant parents leave their children behind in rural villages under the care of one parent, grandparents, or other relatives. These “left-behind children” (LBCs) now account for nearly one-third of all rural children in China, raising urgent concerns about their well-being and human capital development.

This paper investigates the long-term consequences of parental migration for children left behind in rural China, focusing specifically on cumulative exposure to parental absence. While earlier research has examined the short-term or contemporaneous effects of parental migration, few studies have assessed how the duration of separation over a child’s lifetime affects development outcomes. This distinction is crucial, as both health and education are shaped by processes that unfold over time. Using nationally representative data from the Rural-Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) survey, this study introduces a new measure: the proportion of a child’s life during which the mother or father was absent due to labor migration.

The primary outcomes analyzed are children’s physical health and academic performance. Health status is measured using height-for-age and weight-for-age z-scores, which reflect long-term nutritional well-being. Educational achievement is captured through standardized test scores in mathematics and Chinese. To address the endogeneity of parental migration decisions—since parents’ choices to migrate may depend on their children’s health or academic performance—I implement an instrumental variable (IV) strategy. The first instrument leverages historical weather shocks (unusually hot or dry years) experienced by parents during their youth, when they were most likely to begin migrating. The second instrument uses the straight-line distance between the family’s home village and the provincial capital, a proxy for migration cost and opportunity.

Empirical results show that cumulative exposure to parental migration significantly and negatively affects both health and educational outcomes, with particularly pronounced effects for boys. Children who have spent a larger share of their lives separated from their migrant parents are more likely to exhibit stunted growth and underweight status. Academically, these children perform worse in both Chinese and math exams compared to their peers with less or no exposure to parental migration. These effects are robust to various specifications and remain significant in instrumental variable regressions. Interestingly, analyses using only contemporaneous migration indicators—as done in much of the previous literature—fail to capture these long-term effects, suggesting that earlier studies may underestimate the developmental costs of parental absence.

The mechanisms behind these findings are explored through additional analysis of household educational investments. The study finds that children exposed to longer parental absence are more likely to start school late, spend less time on after-school study, and experience delays in grade progression. In households where elderly grandparents or other relatives serve as primary caregivers, the absence of parents often results in limited supervision, less support for learning, and weaker health-related care practices. These findings reflect a deeper structural vulnerability in the lives of left-behind children, where the emotional, social, and cognitive inputs typically provided by parents are diminished or absent for extended periods.

This paper contributes to the existing literature in several ways. First, it refines the measurement of parental migration by focusing on cumulative exposure over time and applying a carefully considered identification strategy. Second, it moves beyond binary definitions of “left-behind” status to explore variation in the intensity and duration of parental absence. Third, it draws on theoretical perspectives from both economics and sociology, incorporating insights from the “resource generation” model—where remittances are viewed as beneficial—and the “family disruption” model, which highlights the potential developmental costs of separation. The results suggest that, within the Chinese context, the adverse developmental effects of prolonged parental absence outweigh the economic advantages of migration, particularly in rural households with limited caregiving support.

The implications of this study are significant for educational policy and child welfare in China and beyond. As rural-urban migration continues to expand, more families will face the difficult decision of whether to migrate alone or attempt costly relocation with children. Without reforms to the hukou system and broader investments in inclusive urban infrastructure, millions of migrant children will remain separated from their parents—exposed to developmental risks that may hinder their long-term well-being and socio-economic mobility. Policy efforts should aim to support family reunification by providing migrant families access to affordable housing, urban schooling, and health services. Additionally, targeted programs for left-behind children in rural areas—such as caregiver training, improved rural schooling, and emotional support services—can help mitigate the harmful effects of family separation.

This research also has global relevance. Similar dynamics are observed in other middle-income countries undergoing rapid urbanization, such as the Philippines, India, and countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. In these contexts, the developmental impacts of labor migration on children are similarly complex and often under-researched. By highlighting the importance of cumulative exposure to parental absence, this study offers a framework that can be adapted and applied across various national contexts.

In conclusion, this paper provides evidence that cumulative exposure to parental migration—measured as the proportion of a child’s lifetime during which parents are absent—has significant negative effects on the health and educational outcomes of children left behind in rural China. By combining innovative measurement, robust identification, and an exploration of causal mechanisms, the study deepens our understanding of the long-term developmental costs of internal labor migration. It calls for urgent and coordinated action to support vulnerable families, improve rural-urban equity, and ensure that economic mobility for one generation does not come at the expense of the next.

Author

• Faosta Haka, Peking University