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This paper reexamines the role of Affirmative Action in facilitating access to higher education for the indigenous youth populations in Bangladesh. Drawing upon Fraser’s framework (Fraser, 2009) of redistribution, recognition, and representation, the study interprets quota policies not merely as technical adjustments but as responses to multidimensional injustices faced by Indigenous communities. Simultaneously, following Ball’s view of policy (Ball, 1993), it further situates recent quota reforms within broader political struggles, particularly the 2024 student protests that reframed the legitimacy of quota systems. It helps to focus on how quota policies are shaped and enacted, not simply implemented. Utilizing existing empirical data at both national and university levels, the article examines the adequacy of the current 1% quota for Indigenous students in Bangladesh’s public higher education system. A key finding is the significant data gap regarding the representation of disadvantaged communities, reflecting both a redistribution failure and a representational exclusion from educational governance.
To address these gaps, the study conducts a Monte Carlo simulation of enrollment trends for Indigenous students using three available national datasets from 2019 to 2023. The results indicate that the 1% quota lacks empirical and normative justification. Even under optimistic scenarios, the projected 1.2% enrollment remains far below the demographic reality of Indigenous communities. By contrast, analysis shows that the quota allocations aligned with either the total Indigenous population (1.7%) or the Indigenous youth population (2.3%) would substantially enhance enrollment, correcting both distributive and representational imbalances.
In conclusion, the findings highlight that quota policies are the product of political compromise and discursive struggles rather than an evidence-based redistribution of opportunity. The paper makes a proposal to increase from 1% to 1.7–2.3%, which would not only be manageable within Bangladesh’s higher education framework but would also embody Fraser’s principles of justice and address Ball’s insights on policymaking as a terrain of struggle (Ball, 2015). The article, therefore, calls for evidence-based and justice-oriented quota reforms that balance demographic realities with recognition of cultural and historical exclusions.