International agricultural trade network equilibrium: competition for limited production and transportation capacity under disaster scenarios with implications for food security

• In Event: SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT: Food Supply Chains

Abstract

The number of people affected by disasters is rising globally, with increasing food insecurity as one of the critical impacts. It is important to have the tools to quantitatively assess the changes in agricultural commodity shipment volumes and their prices under disruption. We construct an international agricultural trade network equilibrium model, which contains novel features of capacities for the production and transportation of commodities to capture competition. A series of numerical examples inspired by Russia’s war on Ukraine is presented. The solutions reveal insights into the importance of production and transportation capacities and multiple cost-efficient transportation routes regarding food security.

Authors

• Anna Nagurney, University of Massachusetts Amherst

• Dana Hassani, University of Massachusetts Amherst

• Oleg Nivievskyi, Kyiv School of Economics

• Pavlo Martyshev, Kyiv School of Economics