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International agricultural trade network equilibrium: competition for limited production and transportation capacity under disaster scenarios with implications for food security

Sun, November 19, 10:00 to 11:30am, Atlanta Marriott Marquis, Floor: Atrium Level, A704


The number of people affected by disasters is rising globally, with increasing food insecurity as one of the critical impacts. It is important to have the tools to quantitatively assess the changes in agricultural commodity shipment volumes and their prices under disruption. We construct an international agricultural trade network equilibrium model, which contains novel features of capacities for the production and transportation of commodities to capture competition. A series of numerical examples inspired by Russia’s war on Ukraine is presented. The solutions reveal insights into the importance of production and transportation capacities and multiple cost-efficient transportation routes regarding food security.