Predicting Daily Surgical Volumes Using Probabilistic Estimates of Providers’ Future Availability

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Abstract

Probability-based models are developed using information from a variety of datasets to
predict daily surgical volumes weeks in advance. The quest wasmotivated by the need to
make real-time adjustments to staff capacity and reallocation of the operating room block
time based on predicted future demand.We test the notion thatmore data always leads to
better predictions.

Authors

• Joonyup Eun, Korea University

• Vikram Tiwari, Vanderbilt

• Warren S. Sandberg, Vanderbilt University Medical Center