Organized Crime, Violence and Support for the State

• In Event: Organized crime: Institutions, attitudes, functioning

Abstract

While citizens’ support is crucial to effectively combat organized crime, it can be challenging for governments to maintain citizens’ trust in the face of criminal organizations wielding considerable power and using violence as a systemic tactic. Contrary to prior studies that have identified a negative correlation between victimization and trust in the state, our research, which sampled 6,000 individuals representative of Italy, experimentally found that priming individuals on organized crime-related violence increases trust towards institutions and state performance. We attribute this finding to a "rally around the flag" effect, rather than to the decrease in homicide rates occurring over the last decades -- in fact, individuals wrongly believe that homicides have increased during such period. Finally, updating beliefs on the real trend in violence does not appear to influence state support. Overall, these findings highlight how exposure to violence, especially when linked to organized groups, might strengthen state support.

Authors

• Gian Maria Campedelli, University of Trento

• Gianmarco Daniele, University of Milan and Bocconi University

• Andrea F.M. Martinangeli, Burgundy School of Business, Université Bourgougne Franche Comté

• Paolo Pinotti, Bocconi University