Post-conflict Colombia: strategies for reducing and preventing violence

• In Event: Post-Conflict Colombia? Reconciliation, Reform, and the Future of Violence

Abstract

Despite the serious setbacks that made the future of the Colombian peace process uncertain in the first half of 2015, the signing of an agreement appears imminent as the negotiations enter their final stage. However, a peace agreement between the government and the FARC does not guarantee durable peace nor does it translate to an end to the endemic violence experienced at the local and regional level. One of the greatest challenges for Colombia in an eventual post conflict scenario will be to avoid the fates of countries like Guatemala and El Salvador, where peace accords did not translate to peace on the ground and where violence levels at times have surpassed those experienced during their respective civil wars. Based on Kalyvas’ theory on the logic of violence, this paper highlights specific regions that are likely to remain or become violent in a possible post conflict scenario, analyzing the conditions on the ground that make these areas more susceptible to the maintenance or emergence of violence; based on data drawn from field research in Colombia. This paper hopes to provide some guidance on the key regions where peacebuilding efforts by the government and the international community should be focused on in order to provide the necessary conditions for sustainable peace.

Authors

• Colin Walch, Uppsala University

• Sabrina Stein, Social Science Research Council