Welfare Regimes and Conflict in Latin America: Reassessing the Effect of Social Welfare on Civil Conflict Onset

• In Event: Moving Forward? State Efficiency, Social Mobility, and Violence in Latin America (1970-2010)

Abstract

What is the impact of social welfare on the onset of civil conflict? Although a few studies in the civil wars literature have explored this relationship, they have mainly approached the concept of social welfare by focusing on social welfare outcomes. However, the role of the institutional dimensions of social welfare regimes (SWR) on civil strife remains unexplored. Focusing on Latin America, this study addresses this puzzle by examining how variation on SWR dimensions – i.e. spending, stratification, decommodification and commodification – is associated with the risk of conflict across the region. The paper explores this causal relationship through the application of mixed methods. First, it assesses the associational links between these dimensions and the onset of Latin American minor and major conflicts (1975-
2005) in a survival model. Second, building upon a key conflict case in the region – Peru’s civil conflict (1980-2000) – the study proposes potential causal mechanisms through which differences across each dimension affect the onset of conflict. This hypothesis-generation case study section engages the grievances-versus-opportunity debate in the civil wars literature. Findings suggest the relevance of SWR institutional features – i.e. stratification – to understand the effect of welfare on conflict. SWR dimensions appear to influence the risk of conflict by both affecting the opportunity structure of conflict and the activation or development of grievances. Far from considering them competing models, research should explore the conditions under which grievances or opportunity-related factors operate exclusively or simultaneously.

Author

• Fiorella P Vera-Adrianzén