The Perils to Order and Security in Cuba’s Transition to Democracy

• In Event: Políticas de seguridad, sus fronteras y la ciudadanía

Abstract

We investigate into Cuba’s current domestic security conditions and on specific institutions and actions that would minimize negative shocks of crime and violence in Cuba as this nation gradually liberalizes.
Political liberalization processes fragment power, and increase the ability for society to voice demands. These factors tend to weaken political order, as existing institutions are unable to accommodate changing conditions in the short-run. Cuba combines various risk factors regarding the incidence of crime and violence: its strategic geographical location for illegal trade, significant scarcity among its population, the current existence of criminal networks operating the multiple black markets in the island, and a corrupt bureaucracy.
Combined, these circumstances place this nation in grave danger of experiencing a significant escalation of crime and violence in the near future, as Cuba slowly liberalizes, which would negatively affect its chances of a successful transition to democracy.
In our research we utilize a variety of quantitative and qualitative methods, such as interviews with experts on Cuba, residents in Cuba, and activists, as well as statistical analysis of data on crime in Cuba and post-Soviet societies. Our work on Cuba contributes to a better understanding on how crime and violence change after countries transition from autocratic to more liberal regimes. And we also contribute to the study on the type of institutions that allow nations for successful transitions to democracy and easier consolidations processes, an issue that not only will affect Cuba in the following years, but that is already affecting many nations in Latin America.

Author

• Vidal F Romero, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM)