Insecurity and Migration Under CARSI in the Northern Triangle

• In Event: Violence, crime and insecurity in Latin America from a subnational perspective

Abstract

The Northern Triangle (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador) continues to draw international attention due to the alarming rates of violence in the region and subsequent migration due to this violence. In response, there has been a continued demand for the funding of various security programs which build up the rule of law, help combat crime and foster development. One such program, Central America Regional Security Initiative (CARSI), has not been without its critics. Prior research on security programs as well as changes to criminal justice institutions within the region has been extensive yet yields conflicting results on their impact on the region. In addition, due to the perceived immigration crisis at the U.S. border due to migration from the Northern Triangle, many studies have also looked into the impact of violence on migration from this region. However, little has been done to assess how changes in the way these countries combat crime, through the use of security programs, influence individual perceptions of crime. Furthermore, little research has connected these perceptions of fear of crime to intentions to migrate. Using the CARSI policy as a focal point and a unique dataset generated by Vanderbilt University’s Latin American Public Opinion Project this paper will explore how perceptions of security under CARSI policies have an impact on individual incentives to migrate.

Author

• Laura Iesue