Neither Oligarchy, nor Populism. The Future of Latin American Political Systems

• In Event: Rethinking Society for the 21st Century from Latin America

Abstract

This paper seeks to describe the emerging Latin American Syndrome (LAS). The LAS is driven by the combination of four traditional traits of Latin American societies (high levels of inequality; states that are functionally and territorially uneven; the difficulty of striking stable cross-class coalitions around the provision of public goods; and the pervasiveness of illegality/ informality in society) and an emerging factor: the radical dilution of relational state capacity and of political power. If that emerging factor is shared with other polities around the world, its juxtaposition with the legacies created by the long-term interaction of the four traditional factors generates a somewhat unique mix. Such unique mix complicates, in particular ways, the structuring of political representation and the legitimation of political rule. And it does so, even in the aftermath of the region’s longest stretch of electoral contestation, economic growth, and social incorporation in history. I will further argue that the future of the region is neither populism, nor oligarchy. A silent and partial meltdown of political authority, and a rising incapacity of temporally and spatially syncing political systems is, I will argue, a more likely corollary of LAS.

Author

• Juan Pablo Luna, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile