Mexico on the World Stage: Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea

• In Event: Comparative Development and Regional Pathways

Abstract

In a globalized world, Mexico stands out as a country that has for decades linked its economy overwhelmingly to that of a single trading partner. Rather than disrupt this trend, the supply chain dislocations of the pandemic strengthened Mexico’s desire to integrate with the United States, this time under the framework of nearshoring. But at what cost?

With the Trump administration’s threat of tariffs, pressure to withdraw from the TPP, and the impending renegotiation of the USMCA in 2026, the risks of Mexico’s US-focused economic strategy have come out in stark relief. This paper examines Mexico’s missed opportunities to strengthen ties with the Pacific Rim and thereby achieve greater economic independence from the United States. The analysis focuses on two multifaceted obstacles to Mexico’s decoupling its economy from that of the United States and reorienting it toward Asia and Oceania: domestic political dynamics and private sector interests, and China’s trade strategy with Latin America and the Pacific Rim. Based on the findings, the authors evaluate Mexico’s future prospects for diversifying its economic ties outside of North America.

Authors

• Emily Edmonds-Poli, University of San Diego

• David A Shirk, University of San Diego