Retrospective and Prospective Statements and Outcome of Presidential Elections

• In Event: Reconsidering Traditional Constructs and Advancing New Models for Political Communication

Abstract

This study investigates whether there is relationship between election outcome and the relative emphasis presidential candidates place on retrospective (past) versus prospective (future) utterances in campaign messages. The sample includes a variety of presidential campaign messages (acceptance addresses, primary and general television spots, debates, direct mail advertising) from several campaigns (1948-2000) by numerous candidates. In the primary phase of the campaign, there is no difference between winners and losers in relative emphasis on retrospective and prospective statements. In the general campaign presidential candidates overall spend more time discussing the future than the past. However, in that phase of the campaign winners use a significantly larger proportion of retrospective (and smaller proportion of prospective) utterances than losers. The discussion suggests that (1) because the future is unknown, basing voting decisions on past records might appear somewhat less risky than relying on speculation about the future and (2) electability (ability to defeat the opposing party candidate in the general election) may be the most important concern in primary campaigns.

Author

• William L. Benoit, Univ of Missouri, Columbia