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The Impact of Exposure to Terrorism on the Likelihood of Political Participation

Thu, January 17, 8:00 to 9:20am, JW Marriott Austin, 210

Abstract

How do terrorist attacks affect political participation in countries? I study this question by focusing on both conventional and unconventional ways of political participation. Although previous literature found that terrorist activities have a capacity to change people’s likelihood of political participation, few studies have explored the direction of this change. In the aftermath of a terrorist attack, do we see an increase in individual’s likelihood of political participation or a decrease? I argue that the voter turnout is likely to increase in the wake of a terrorist attack only when citizens are satisfied with the way democracy works in their countries. Moreover, elections provide a tool for citizens to shape government policies in democracies but it is not the only way of political participation. Those who think that their participation in politics will not matter might also look for other ways of political participation and divert their political interest to unconventional ways such as holding a demonstration, participating in a boycott, and signing a petition. Based on this logic I predict that, if citizens are not satisfied with the way democracy works in their countries, they are more likely to participate in unconventional political activities in the aftermath of a terrorist attack. To test my predictions, I analyze a dataset of elections in European countries between 1995-2014. The main insight of my paper is that people react to terrorist attacks differently and their perception regarding to political institutions is an important source of this variation.

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