Children use Probability to Make Quality Judgments Before Happiness Judgments

• In Event: 3-004 - The Development of Emotion Understanding From Infancy Through Early Childhood

Integrative Statement

Our success in social interactions greatly depends on our ability to infer people’s emotions. This allows us to explain people’s past behaviors, predict future actions, and regulate our own behaviors to act in accordance with how they feel.

It is known that children infer people’s emotions by memorizing scripts (e.g., Barden, Zelko, Duncan, & Masters, 1980; Widen & Russell, 2010, 2011), and by considering others’ mental states (e.g., Rieffe, Terwogt, & Cowan, 2005; Wellman & Bartsch, 1988). However, children can also use probability to infer at least some emotions. In particular, 7-year-olds consider probability when inferring surprise (Doan, Friedman, & Denison, in press). Surprise and probability are directly linked (i.e., improbable events are surprising but probable ones are not), but what about emotions that are less obviously linked to probability? For example, positive outcomes might be more pleasing if they are improbable (“What good luck!”) rather than probable. Here, we examined whether children use probability to make inferences about other people’s happiness.

In Experiment 1 (N=180), 4-6-year-olds saw a scenario where a girl stood before a gumball machine that either contained mostly “yummy” red gumballs and few “yucky” black gumballs, or a machine with the reverse distribution. In both conditions, the machine dispensed 2 red and 2 black gumballs. Children were asked to rate how the girl felt about this outcome using a 7-point scale ranging from extremely sad to extremely happy. We were interested in seeing whether children’s happiness ratings would differ depending on the distribution of gumballs. An ANOVA revealed a marginal effect of condition, F(1,174)=3.40, p=.067, and a significant age by condition interaction, F(2,174)=4.39, p=.014, η2p=.048 (see Fig.1). Five- and six-year-olds rated the girl as being significantly happier when the machine contained mostly black gumballs than when the machine contained mostly red gumballs, ps ≤ .043. Four-year-olds showed no differences between the two conditions, p=.243.

This suggests that 5- and 6-year-olds considered the quality of the outcome in relation to the distributions, and subsequently inferred the character’s feelings, while 4-year-olds did not. Do 4-year-olds fail to appreciate the relative quality of the outcomes? Or do they appreciate this but fail to use it when attributing emotions? In Experiment 2 (N=180), we examined whether 4-6-year-olds use probability to determine the quality of an outcome. Children saw a gumball machine that contained mostly “yummy” red gumballs and few “yucky” black gumballs, or a machine that contained the reverse distribution. In both conditions, the machine dispensed 2 red and 2 black gumballs. Children judged how good that outcome was using the 7-point happiness scale. An ANOVA revealed only a main effect of condition, F(1,174) = 18.07, p < .001, η2p = .094 (see Fig.2), demonstrating that by age 4, children consider the distribution of a population to determine whether the outcome is good or bad.

Taken together, our results suggest that by 4, children consider probability when determining the quality of an outcome, but are unable to integrate this information with their understanding of happiness until age 5.

Authors

• Tiffany Doan, University of Waterloo
  Presenting Author

• Ori Friedman, University of Waterloo
  Non-Presenting Author

• Stephanie Denison, University of Waterloo
  Non-Presenting Author