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Episodic future thinking (EFT) is a fundamental aspect of human cognition that involves using episodic memories to anticipate future events. Previous work suggests that EFT may emerge between 3 and 4 years (e.g. Suddendorf et al., 2010). However, the cognitive components required to form future oriented thoughts may be present by at least the second year of life, including explicit memory and planning. Since previous work assessing EFT has relied on verbal measures, there has been no work examining the developmental origins of EFT before the age of 3. Here, we examined implicit EFT in 18-24 month olds.
In Experiment 1 (n=24; M = 20.63 months, SD = 1.95; 12 girls), we tracked infant eye gaze (Tobii) during a video designed to tap implicit EFT (Figure 1). First, during an Episodic Memory Formation phase (8 trials), infants observed an experimenter who demonstrated that interacting with two different widgets on a box produced two unique outcomes (e.g. twisting a blue cup caused a duck to appear at the front of the box, turning a green crank caused a ball to appear). Then, during a Test phase (4 trials), a puppet requested an object from the experimenter (e.g., “Can you get me a duck?”). The experimenter then paused for 8s with her hands on top of the box (without engaging in one of the actions) and infants’ gaze was measured. We reasoned that, if infants are able to remember the widget-outcome associations, and are able to recognize that those associations are relevant to the puppet’s goal, they should look more toward the widget that will result in the requested object (e.g. the blue cup), anticipating the experimenter’s action.
We computed infants’ anticipatory looking scores ((gaze duration to requested widget-gaze duration to other widget)/total gaze duration) and conducted a one-sample t-test comparing these scores to 0. Overall, infants looked equally to both widgets, t(23)=.829, p=.42. However, post-hoc analyses of age-related effects revealed that 18-month-olds (M=-.25) performed significantly differently from 19-24-month-olds (M=.25), t(22)=2.663, p=.01. Indeed, 19-24-month-olds looked significantly longer at the correct widget, t(15)=2.22, p=.04, while 18-month-olds showed no preference (p=n.s.) (Figure 2). Results suggest that implicit EFT behaviors are observable during infancy, and may emerge around 19 months.
In ongoing Experiment 2, we are exploring the extent of this ability by testing 20-24-month-olds in a more stringent version of the task. The task proceeds as in Experiment 1, except that between Episodic Memory Formation and Test infants observe intervening trials in which the widget box is absent and the puppet demonstrates a preference for one of the toys. During Test, the puppet asks the experimenter to retrieve its “favorite toy”. To succeed, infants must maintain the widget-outcome associations while learning the puppet’s preference, and then combine these sources of knowledge to anticipate the correct outcome. Data collection in ongoing, with promising preliminary results.