„I just want a number“– Science-Policy Interactions in Energy System Modelling

• In Event: The Life of Numbers 1: Models, Qualculations and Futuring

Abstract

Energy system modellling plays a crucial role in developing and implementing energy transitions. Models provide various orientations, inter alia, by exploring scenarios and pathways, illustrating trade-offs and highlighting economical and technological efficient and effective measures. Yet, as modellers frequently bemoan, policy-makers all too often are asking for “just a number”, indicating their demand for seemingly unambiguous and easily to communicate results in light of the complex and potentially contested societal and political transformation to decarbonisation.
In our presentation, we analyze and discuss the origin, use and authority of numbers in energy system modelling and respective science-policy interactions. With a qualitative analysis of twenty scientific articles, we trace the different functions and characteristics of numbers in the epistemic practice of modelling. Numbers play a central role in modelling, inter alia, as quantitative assumptions, data and results but also as uncertainty measures. We deepen our insights on the basis of two cases in which energy system modelling was used to inform energy policy making (UKs Clean Growth Strategy and the Portuguese Roadmap for Carbon Neutrality). We ask how numbers are negotiated, established and contested, how they are embedded in or contradict specific socio-political narratives and how they are used to legitimize policy actions. Our findings indicate that the authority of numbers manifests at different levels during the modelling process e.g. when modelling assumptions are negotiated or in phases in which the (preliminary) results are communicated to policy makers. Our contribution intends to clarify, why the answer is not simply 42.

Authors

• Leo Capari, Institute of Technology Assessment, Austrian Academy of Sciences

• Anja Bauer, University of Klagenfurt

• Daniela Fuchs, Institute of Technology Assessment of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ITA-OeAW)

• Titus Udrea, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Inst. of Technology Assessment (ITA)